Following last week’s catastrophic strike from Hurricane Ian, the FOX Forecast Center is now monitoring two Atlantic tropical disturbances for possible development in the week ahead.
October ranks as the third-most-active month (behind September and August) for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, typically producing about two named storms, one of which becomes a hurricane. And every other October, on average, one of those hurricanes intensifies into a “major hurricane,” achieving Category 3 or higher intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Two disturbances currently have the potential to develop into tropical depressions or storms in the coming days, one in the central tropical Atlantic and the other in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Let’s break down the forecast for each one and discuss any potential threats they could pose to the U.S. down the road.
Tropical Disturbance No. 1: Central tropical Atlantic
A tropical disturbance centered several hundred miles east of the southeastern Caribbean islands is producing shower and thunderstorm activity that has increased a bit over the past day or so. The FOX Forecast Center has dubbed this system “Tropical Disturbance No. 1.”
Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible over the next few days as it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph in the direction of the eastern Caribbean Sea.
“In the coming days, what is anticipated to happen is that it is going to be moving into a more favorable environment, so we’ll be watching that area very closely,” FOX Weather meteorologist Kendall Smith said.
The National Hurricane Center gives Tropical Disturbance No. 1 a low chance of development in the next five days, but those odds could potentially increase beyond the five-day period if conditions become more favorable in the Caribbean.
Tropical Disturbance No. 2: Eastern tropical Atlantic
A tropical disturbance centered several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The FOX Forecast Center has dubbed this system “Tropical Disturbance No. 2.”
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for some gradual development of this tropical disturbance over the next several days.
A tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of this week as the disturbance moves westward, then turns northwestward or northward toward the end of the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center gives Tropical Disturbance No. 2 a high chance of development in the next five days.
Will either of these tropical disturbances threaten the US?
A blocking high-pressure system is forecast to build to the north of Tropical Disturbance No. 1, which should reach the eastern Caribbean Sea by Thursday. Therefore, the FOX Forecast Center believes the disturbance will keep heading west across the Caribbean, preventing it from turning north toward the US – at least through the end of this week.
Tropical Disturbance No. 2 is also not currently a threat to the US, as the computer forecast models suggest it will move toward the northwest or north and remain far from the US East Coast.
The FOX Forecast Center will keep a close eye on both tropical disturbances and alert you of any changes to the forecast.
If either or both of these systems becomes a tropical storm with winds of at least 39 mph, they will earn the names Julia and Karl in their order of formation.