More than 120 million voters are expected to have cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections by the time the last polls close Tuesday, and they appear ready for a change.
Republicans were expected to pick up three Senate seats from Democrats, gaining a 53-47 majority after two years out of power, according to the latest projection by RealClearPolitics.
The same outlet predicts the GOP will regain their House majority by winning at least 227 seats. Democrats are projected to win at least 174 seats, with the remaining 34 races considered toss-ups that could give the GOP its largest conference since 1946 if they break Republicans’ way.
Here’s an hour-by-hour look at races to watch on Election Night:
7 p.m. — Georgia, Virginia, Indiana
Senate: Former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker leads Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock by 0.6 percentage points, according to RealClear Politics’ polling average. However, the same metric shows Walker, who has shrugged off accusations he paid for two ex-girlfriends’ abortions despite his pro-life stance, stuck on 48% — not enough to avoid a Dec. 6 runoff against Warnock that could decide control of the Senate for the next two years.
Governor: Republican incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp has held a clear polling lead over Democrat challenger Stacey Abrams throughout this rematch of their 2018 slugfest. The big question: Can Kemp voters also drag Walker over the finish line in the Senate race? Republicans will be hoping the answer is yes.
House: Republicans will be hoping to win two of at least three contested races in Virginia. In the coastal Second District, Democrat Elaine Luria appears in trouble against state Sen. Jennifer Kiggans. In the central Seventh District, Rep. Abigail Spanberger faces a tough fight against Republican Yesli Vega, while in the exurban 10th District, Democrat Jennifer Wexton is in a closer-than-expected race against Navy veteran Hung Cao.
Meanwhile, Indiana’s 1st District hasn’t elected a Republican to Congress since 1928, but Republicans think they have a winner in Jennifer-Ruth Green.
7:30 p.m. –North Carolina and Ohio
Senate: Democrats once viewed these open-seat races as among their best pickup opportunities, but polls have shown GOP Rep. Ted Budd consistently leading Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice on the Tar Heel State’s Supreme Court. If Beasley does manage to defy the polls, she would be the third black woman ever elected to the Senate.
In Ohio, former venture capitalist and best-selling “Hillbilly Elegy” author JD Vance has pulled away from Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in the polls. Republicans have to hold both these seats to have a chance of flipping the Senate.
8 p.m. — Connecticut, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania
Governor: Florida’s Ron DeSantis is all but assured of victory over Democrat Charlie Crist. The only question here is: How big will the margin be as DeSantis builds up to a prospective 2024 White House run?
Senate: Democrats thought picking up Pennsylvania’s open seat was a done deal when summer polls showed Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leading Dr. Mehmet Oz. But the race has tightened in recent weeks as an Oct. 25 debate between the candidates showed Fetterman’s faltering recovery from a stroke, and raised questions about whether he could serve out his term.
In New Hampshire, Democrat Maggie Hassan is in an unexpectedly close fight with Republican challenger Don Bolduc, who Senate Dems bolstered during the primary campaign with more than $3 million of campaign money. If Bolduc pulls off an upset in the Granite State, Democratic chances of holding the Senate are likely gone.
House: Two more races in the Northeast could show how far the red wave is traveling. In New Hampshire’s First District, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is having to work hard to fight off 25-year-old Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump White House press officer.
Meanwhile, in Connecticut’s Fifth District, Republicans think former state Sen. George Logan has a real shot against incumbent Rep. Jahana Hayes
9 p.m. — Arizona, New York
House: How far will the red wave reach in New York? Will it crash on the shores of Long Island, where Republicans are eyeing open seats in the 3rd and 4th Districts? Will it surge through the five boroughs and help Nicole Malliotakis keep her 11th District seat representing Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn? Will it sweep away Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the 19th District and make him the first House Democratic campaign chair to lose his race in 42 years? Will it move Dallas-born software company owner Brandon Williams into the upstate seat vacated by retiring Rep. John Katko?
Governor: Rep. Lee Zeldin has hammered Gov. Kathy Hochul on issues like crime, corruption and the faltering economy. Has he done enough to become New York’s first Republican chief executive in 20 years, or did the Democrats’ weekend triage operation which saw Bill Clinton and President Biden stump for Hochul persuade enough waverers to keep the faith with Team Blue?
Senate: Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly’s support has collapsed in recent weeks as the state grapples with the ongoing border crisis. Republican venture capitalist Blake Masters was not the GOP establishment’s first choice in this race, but as in Georgia, a strong showing by a winning gubernatorial candidate (former local news anchor Kari Lake) may be enough to get him over the line.
10 p.m. — Nevada
Senate: The West may be where control of the Senate will be won. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto won her first term by fewer than 30,000 votes in 2016. If she defeats Republican Adam Laxalt, the Silver State’s former attorney general, it may be by an even narrower margin. Early voting data indicates Democrats hold a slim lead over Republicans in Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) counties. With big Election Day turnout expected among GOP voters, Republicans could flip Arizona and Nevada and not have to sweat a Georgia runoff.
