Revised New York State redistricting lines have taken the bloom of the Rose.
In fact few politicians have taken it on the chin harder than Democrat Max Rose, according to pundits. The non-partisan Cook Political Report says the ex-Staten Island congressman has “little path” to victory.
Rose is looking to reclaim his old seat in the city’s 11th District, which covers all of Staten Island plus conservative pockets of South Brooklyn like Bensonhurst and Dyker Heights.
But when he first entered the race in December 2021, his prospects were much brighter, as Democratic gerrymandering created a district that would include the heavily liberal Park Slope section of Brooklyn.
That map was tossed out by a court-appointed Special Master, who redrew the district closer to its original lines.
“The district was ungerrymandered,” said longtime Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “The original lines were created to make it impossible for a Republican to win by adding large portions of gentrified Brooklyn.”
Though the district remains officially competitive according to its creator, Special Master Jonathan Cervas, other analysts have come to different conclusions.
“Democrat Max Rose has banked $1.4 million since losing to [Republican Nicole] Malliotakis by six points in 2020, but his comeback prospects were always predicated on more favorable district lines. They didn’t materialize,” Cook said Tuesday in its analysis saying the district is now “solid Republican.”
Rose’s campaign has gone eerily quiet. While other pols around the city raced to condemn the new map, or announce their intentions to run in other seats, he has offered nothing — leading to speculation he plans to drop out.
“He did not sound like someone who was running in the 11th,” said a person close to Rose who spoke to him after the new district dropped. “It’s a hard path. It’s not going to be a great year for Democrats. It was going to be a tough haul in the new district, now the district is a real challenge and he knows that.”
Rose, who was born in Brooklyn, had already been campaigning there for months in anticipation of it being part of his original 11th. A poll Thursday from PIX11/Emerson College Polling/The Hill found the race to be wide open with 77% of voters undecided about who to support.
Rose has until Tuesday to make the final decision. He did not immediately return a request for comment.