Republicans set to lead in midterms, new polling shows

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Republicans set to lead in midterms, new polling shows

With just over six months until the midterm elections, Republicans appear to have an edge over Democrats as just under 50 percent of Americans say they are more likely to vote for the GOP in a new poll released Friday. 

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that 47% of registered voters are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate in their district if the midterms were held today. Approximately 44% said they would vote Democratic. 

Republicans also saw a key advantage among Independents, with 45% of registered independent voters saying they would vote for the GOP while 38% said they would vote for a Democratic candidate. 

Looking at particular issues, the Friday poll found that voters believe Republicans would do a better job at handling the economy, controlling inflation, crime, national security, immigration, and gun policies. On contrast, the respondents said Democrats would do a better job of handling LGBTQ+ rights, climate change, coronavirus, voting rights, election security, education and abortion rights. 

Specifically, 45% of respondents said Democrats would tackle climate change better while only 17% said Republicans would. On inflation, 41% of voters said the GOP would better control inflation while 20% backed the Democrats. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy
The Friday poll found that voters believe Republicans would do a better job at handling the economy and controlling inflation and crime.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

While the crisis at the southern border rages on, voters did remain closely split on immigration, but ultimately favored Republicans 37% to 34%. Seventeen percent of voters remained undecided. 

Democrats face a steep climb this fall to keep the majority in the House and Senate. More than 30 Democratic members of the House have announced they do not plan to run for reelection — either to retire from politics or run for another office — while only 18 Republicans have done the same. 

Democrats could even see that number grow in the coming weeks

The poll also found that President Biden’s approval rating remains in the low 40s — reporting that 41% of voters approve of the job he is doing in the White House. While it is a small boost from a low of 39% he received in March, only 16% said they strongly approve. 

 Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi
Only 20 percent of those polled backed Democrats on combating inflation.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Biden is still struggling to garner support from Hispanic and Latino communities, the survey found, reporting that 55% of Latino respondents disapprove of the job Biden is doing. Approximately the same amount of white respondents also disapprove. 

However the large majority of black voters — 64% — said they approve of his job as president. 

Currently, the president’s average approval rating sits at 41.4%, according to data compiled by RealClearPolitics. 

The survey was conducted from April 19-26 and carried a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

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